Recession vs. Housing Market: What to Know

Are concerns about a possible recession making you nervous about the housing market? You’re not alone. But before jumping to conclusions, it’s important to look at the facts—and history tells a very different story than many headlines suggest.

Recession Doesn’t Always Equal Falling Home Prices

Let’s clear up one of the biggest misconceptions: just because the economy slows down doesn’t mean the housing market will crash. While everyone remembers the 2008 housing crisis, what happened then was the exception—not the rule.

Looking back at the last six recessions, home prices actually appreciated in four of them. The only significant drop occurred in 2008, and that was caused by a housing bubble—something very different from what we’re seeing today. The market conditions that led to the crash back then (like risky lending and oversupply) simply aren’t present right now.

What About Mortgage Rates?

Another key factor to watch is mortgage rates. Historically, mortgage rates tend to decline during a recession. Lower rates can create opportunities for buyers to enter the market and for current homeowners to refinance. Just don’t expect a return to the ultra-low 3% rates we saw in recent years—those were historically rare.

Still, a softening in rates can help balance affordability and maintain buyer demand, keeping the market more stable than many fear.

Today’s Market Is Fundamentally Strong

Unlike 2008, today’s housing market is built on a solid foundation:

• Stricter lending standards
• Low housing inventory
• High levels of homeowner equity

These factors contribute to price stability and reduce the risk of a major downturn—even if the broader economy contracts.

What Should You Do If You’re Planning To Buy or Sell?

Rather than trying to time the market, focus on your personal goals. If you’re financially ready to make a move, the long-term benefits of homeownership still apply—especially in a market that continues to show resilience.

And if you’re selling, today’s lower inventory levels mean well-priced homes are still in demand, even if the pace of the market has cooled from recent highs.

Final Thoughts

Yes, a recession could be on the horizon—but that doesn’t mean a housing crash is coming with it. The truth is, real estate often weathers economic storms better than many expect. If you’re wondering how changing economic conditions could affect your plans, I’d be happy to help break it down for you.

What else have you heard about the housing market that has you curious—or concerned? DM me or leave a comment in the form below. Let’s clear up the confusion with facts, not fear of buying or selling in today’s market.